There is what the event in Durban, South Africa, when more than 10,000 people gathered there today? They are currently negotiating, bargaining with each other, for "one purpose" ethical, is to save the Earth to remain habitable for future generations.

The story began with the signing of the Convention on Climate Change at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 1992. This Convention aims to stabilize concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere at a certain level so that the climate system is not disturbed by human activity up to dangerous levels.

After 19 years passed and the UN climate change conference runs up to 17 times based on research results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which consists of more than 2,300 people, in terms of science continue to emerge objections from a group of other scientists who only numbered in the hundreds.

First condition on which the calculation is the human presence and activity, in which the release of human activity and absorb energy. As a result, the warm sunshine and the equilibrium temperature of the Earth can no longer be viewed as something we can treat people for granted because of the move.

How does the actual workings of global warming? Telling the process was not easy. Will ultimately fall on the sophistication of modeling. Why? The cause is none other than the size of Earth are enormous. So intense that it is not possible for us to make measurements in place, as we measure the length and width of the tiles of our house with the meter stick.

Although satellites now orbit the Earth has been passed on to record the data, there are still empty fields were missed from the sweep of the "eye" satellite. Indonesia region is one of them.

Books of The Greenhouse Challenge, What's to be Done? (Jim Falk & Andrew Brownlow, 1989) tried to reveal the "kitchen scientists" associated with GHG issues that disturb our sleep.

Predicting the weather is rather easy because the time span between observations and predictions is relatively short, daily or weekly, and includes a relatively narrow space which sometimes are very local.

Quite unlike the case when the matter would predict the effect of GHGs in the future. The problem is, the interaction that occurs between GHGs to the atmosphere, oceans, and biosphere "very extraordinary" complex to explain the high level of complexity of the climate system plus GHG in it. Such interactions vary in each sheet of "strokes" Earth-according to latitude, longitude, altitude layer of air, and the ongoing season.

In science, the complexity of a problem trying to be simplified by incorporating a number of assumptions that gave rise to a number of variables, with the most accurate idea of ​​the various possibilities that might happen. Weaknesses, there are important variables opens the possibility of scattered. Also, do not forget the great help of technology and science itself.

The history of the future

When we did not succeed completely expose the entire phenomenon, but we can be telescoped into the future, rests of the present conditions, that's where we can start a story. Simplification allows us "tells the history of the future" (The Greenhouse Challenge, 1989). Said "future history" because we actually do not know what the future will be like because he has not arrived. However, we can have a picture of the future based on the pictures we have at present.

Science continues to evolve, technology continues to evolve. Narrative of the future will continue to occur with the same method. We speak with the hope the picture will be more accurate. That's what happened with the narrative of climate change. All the claims of climate catastrophe as a result of global warming.

Real things that can not be denied is the doubling of the intensity of disasters are congruent with the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. So, we had better use the language of climate change or climate extremes. Because the problem of global warming is still fraught various scientific issues.

Globalization vs internationalization

Leave a science discussion, let us to the negotiating table in Durban. Negotiations there is not based on meteorology or climatology. Political science and economics has berkelindan, with great complexity in the negotiation process. Cost-benefit calculations and material resources into the base. Disasters that threaten humans is no longer the basis for negotiations.

Talking about climate extremes are talking about hundreds of millions of people who would be displaced from their homes due to extreme disasters, like floods that hit many weeks of Thailand and Australia or drought that triggered the conflict between tribes in Darfur, Africa.

No wonder if the effort to curb GHG emissions to be sluggish. The second period of the Kyoto Protocol is in the betting. The first phase of the protocol which expires next year have failed. GHG emissions rather than down, but rather increased double digits.

Global world order applies. All must follow a pattern, and the pattern imposed by the powerful, the rich countries. Internationalization abandoned. In the approach to internationalization, selfhood and the distinctiveness of each nation or country is respected. Suffering and cries of despair Maldivian society will be heard and they will be assisted. They could actually have the responsibility of the problems faced. Only, they need help to stand up straight because the resources are no longer belongs to them .